Currently Listening to: Esperanza Spalding – I Know You Know
This is a reaffirmation on sabermetrics and Moneyball, why its crossing over to the NBA should be wonderous, and how Daryl Morey is the spearhead for the push for better management.
There are two teams that have effectively stayed within legitimate contention within the last decade or so.
1) The Spurs - A decade of dominance starting from 98 and onwards. Brilliant drafting, great signings, great philosophy, patience, and focus. The front office of legends. If every team had Spurs management, the NBA would be watched by martians.
2) The Pistons - They started the trio before people started picking up on it. Sheed, Billups, and Rip? That’s like the Version 1.0 to the Pierce, Garnett, and Allen Trio. Built a team around role players and had a starting five to die for with Prince and Big Ben. Remember 2004 Lakers fans? It’s because your management sucks that happened. 7 straight conference champs.
There are two, three teams that are in position to be great.
1) Raptors are supposed to be brilliant, that team should be great but for some reason isn’t. Headed by Bryan Colangelo.. maybe I just have too much faith
2) The Blazers. I think they’re the next Spurs. Just another piece away… I don’t know why they’re so silent this year.. probably saving up for next year.
3) The Zombie Sonics. Sam Presti has done wonders with that team in just two years.
4) The Rockets. They have to be cursed. You lose 40 million dollars in cap for teh last 3 years, and still stay relevant. I think Daryl Morey is a genius
The ehh’s.
The Magic and the Nuggets. They just don’t do enough.. and I feel like they get lucky and sometimes over pay.\
Onto the point at hand. I’m going to explain why the Lakers blow as a management group, despite winning the title.
1) The Pau Gasol thing is some fluke. Chris Wallace is retarded, and I mean certifiably, institutionally mentally ill. That deal wasn’t even a deal. Its one of those things where, if you play a lot of EA Sports games, you would restart the game because the trade was so dumb and you realize .03 seconds after you commit it that you could’ve gotten a deal 10 times better. He didn’t listen to any other offer. Half the teams didn’t even know Gasol was on the trading block. Who is that dumb to not find a better offer? I bet even Hollinger’s PER had that trade at Lakers +10 PER by just getting Gasol.
2) Vujacic is making five years a year. He’s making about the same amount of money Ron Artest is, Trevor Ariza is, and so on. Is he worth that? NO. Is Luke Walton? No? WHY IS HE MAKING THE SAME AMOUNT?
3) Jerry West is/was a genius. You’re living off his blood. Shaq, Fisher, Bryant? That’s all West.
4) http://www.basketballreference.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=BYNUMAN01
We’re going to look at a very basic statistical reference (I’m going to discuss this later.. but Daryl Morey’s formulas are secret, no one else has them besides the Rockets)
Two players jump out, Tyrus Thomas and Craig Smith.
Here’s how much Bynum is making
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/la_lakers.htm
and here’s how much Thomas and Smith are making.
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/chicago.htm
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota.htm
In a fictional world; if I could trade Thomas and Smith for Bynum (which, if my team has reached the cap limit I can’t because I’m paying Bynum so much… ) I would. He’s a rich man’s Samuel Dalembert, and you’re paying him 8 digits. Not that Dalembert’s contract isn’t ridiculous.
5) Congratulations. You got a player to play in LOS ANGELES. Unless you like clean air instead of Hollywoood stars, beaches, the party life, and great weather 365 days a year, you’ll want to live here. Besides Miami, your team, based purely on the city and such, is probably the most attractive to NBA players.
This brings up Daryl Morey. Moneyball principles apply to the NBA because it is a softcap, meaning teams who have good owners are willing to pay the luxury tax, and teams who have Donald Sterling have to sit through an incompetent coach who also happens to be GM, when a guy like Michael Curry gets fired after a year.
Daryl Morey, bless his heart, has to sit on 40 millions dollars (about half the cap next year) because of injuries, so say he operates in 50 million dollars… You know what? I’m going to let the 2009-2010 season talk for me. I would put money on the Rockets finishing over 42 wins next year, despite having shitty pickings at the FA market this year. Wait for my follow up on statistical analysis and its benefits in the NBA… and why Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holliday are busts because they’re horrible statistically (and one has a horrible attitude.. next Darius Miles?)